A global supply-demand balance model to assess potential CO2 emissions and woody biofuel supply from increased crop production

摘要

This study proposes a food supply-demand balance model to evaluate the CO2 emissions and effects on woody biofuel after an increase in crop production and, thus, in cultivated arable land. In addition to these effects, we consider increasing crop prices and population growth in developing countries in our global mid-term market analysis for four major crops. The results show that the demand for all main crops is increasing, especially that of soybeans, the largest increase in demand is occurring in China and South America. The result is that South America needs to increase its production levels and amount of cultivated arable land to fulfill the increasing demand. Therefore, South America can play a dominant role in maintaining the future supply-demand balance of crops.