Forecast of Labor Force Supply in China from 2010 to 2050

摘要

The labor supply is simulated in the study, including the level of death, the ratio of workforce, urban and rural labor supply, age-specific labor supply, and relevant results are forecast in China from 2010 to 2050, by using the sixth census data, depending on the calculation of the basic population model, the prediction model of rural surplus labors, the urban economically active population model, and so on. In the current situation, the total workforce is in short supply and the pressure of provision for the aged increases continuously, the earlier the population policy is adjusted and the total fertility rate is enhanced, the more contributes will be made to solve the labor shortage problems in future.