Using Decision Tree Analysis to Make Herd Management Decisions

摘要

Dairy producers and dairy consultants are continually faced with decisions. Making a decision between 2 alternatives, when both the costs and projected returns of each alternative are predictable with moderate to high accuracy, is fairly straightforward and can be performed with the aid of simple tools (e.g., partial budgets). More commonly, however, life is not so straightforward. Decision trees are formal quantitative tools that may be used to select the best course of action in situations where the decision is complex and outcomes are uncertain (Overton, 2004). Indeed, decision trees are particularly useful when there is uncertainty, since the probability of each potential outcome is factored into the analysis.