Research on the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Carbon Emissions based on Econometric Model

摘要

Based on the data of foreign trade import and export volume and carbon emissions in China from1990 to 2012, statistical analysis through econometric models, the results showed that both showed a significant linear correlation. By stationary test and co-integration explain the existence of long-term stable equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions and foreign trade, through error correction shows the short-term dynamic relationship between them, the results show that the development of foreign trade will continue affect our environment. Finally, we put forward a proposal of industrial development. As economic of China strength, our influence in the world also greater and greater. According to customs statistics, 2012 foreign trade volume of China reached $3 866.76 billion, more than the United States ranks first in the world. On the surface, China has obtained the aura of world trade, but follow the harvest is big business environmental issues, in particular pollution problems. According to the British Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research "Global Carbon Project" research in 2012 shows that, in 2011, the first three countries in global carbon emissions were China (28%), the U.S. (16%), EU (11%)[1], as can be seen from the data, our carbon emissions have exceeded the sum of the U.S. and the EU. So the analysis of the relationship between carbon emissions and our foreign trade, have particularly important practical significance for the sustainable development of trade and ecological terms.