Towards EUGas-26: the European Gas Assessment model for EU Directive 2008/14/EC and EU Regulation No 994/2010

摘要

Questions concerning security of supply and identification of critical components of the European gas market have gained more and more attention since the adoption of the Council Directive 2004/67/EC. Due to the importance of gas in the European energy mix, the European Union (EU) needs tools and know-how to address, support, and assess the development of a well-functioning internal gas market, of its infrastructure, and diversification of supply. The "European Gas Assessment" (EUGas) project is an ongoing effort to develop an integrated hydraulic country scale project of national gas transmission systems (NGTS) to support Directive 2008/114/EC on "the identification and designation of European Critical Infrastructure (ECI)" and Regulation 994/2010 on "measure to safeguard security of gas supply". EUGas can identify key ECls and conduct a risk analysis based on major threat scenarios. It can evaluate vulnerabilities of assets and potential impacts of disruptions. It can support the definition of infrastructure and supply standards, and the establishment of "Operator Security Plan", "Preventive Action Plan", "Emergency Plan", or "Risk Assessment", particularly in light of a "regional cooperation". EUGas is a country level model of NGTSs built using a combination of commercially available software to provide a technical insight into the operation of such complex systems. Composed of approximately 5.000 nodes and 6.500 pipelines, it covers, up to now, 20 Member States (i.e., Finland, Sweden, Denmark, The Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, France, Belgium, Luxemburg and Portugal). EUGas provides a detailed one-time steady state pressure and flow analysis of the integrated system, and it uses a Geographic Information System (GIS) data processing component and a hydraulic network solving engine. The paper presents a short description of the architecture of EUGas, and of the solutions identified to cope with the challenging problems in scaling up at the EU level. A GIS module, based on ESRI ArcGIS Desktop~?, performs all necessary data pre-processing in order to have a topologically correct network. A Scenario creation module provides tools to manage demand/supply data and create scenarios to be tested in the network. A Hydraulic solver module, based on GL Noble Denton SynerGee Gas~?, solves the steady state condition of a gas grid under different load and environmental conditions. Examples are provided to show EUGAs capabilities. Open issues are reported in the conclusions mostly in light of covering all Member States with EUGas-26. In particular, a strategic steps are the validation in collaboration with Transmission System Operators of the details of the facilities of the infrastructure, the access to information concerning demand in the framework of REMIT, and the identification of strategies and legal constraints in coping and managing a possible crisis at the national or regional level.