Trajectories of rice-farming households in mainland South-East Asia

摘要

The five countries of mainland South-East Asia (MSEA) are undergoing the major agrarian and demographic transitions associated with rapid economic growth, with significant implications for the livelihood trajectories of rice-farming households in the lowlands. The experience of early-transforming countries, notably Thailand, provides clues to the possible trajectories of late-transforming countries such as Laos and Cambodia. The growth in incomes and reduction in poverty has led to a diversification of diets, with rice taking on less significance. The sharp drop in fertility has provided a 'demographic dividend' to rural households, reducing the dependency ratio, slowing the growth in the number of households, and slowing the reduction in farm size. Combined with the rise in rural-urban and cross-border wage migration, this demographic trend has created a shortage of farm labour and increased the incentive for adoption of labour-saving innovations, notably mechanisation. Improvements in infrastructure and the growth in demand for a wider range of agricultural products have increased the returns to non-rice crop and livestock activities relative to rice. Although the share of agriculture in the economy (and of the rice sector in particular) will continue to fall, the overwhelming trajectory is not one of agricultural decline but of farm and livelihood diversification-with rice cultivation still an important component-helping to lift many rice-farming households out of poverty.