BAYESIAN EVALUATION OF BUDGETS FOR ENDEMIC DISEASE CONTROL; AN EXAMPLE USING A MANAGEMENT CHANGE TO REDUCE MILK SOMATIC CELL COUNT EARLY IN THE FIRST LACTATION OF IRISH DAIRY COWS

摘要

Reducing the prevalence of heifers with a high milk somatic cell count (SCC) early in the first lactation could be achieved through herd level management changes during the pre- and peri-partum period, however the cost effectiveness of interventions is unknown. A synthesis of multiple sources of evidence, accounting for variability and uncertainty in the available data is invaluable to inform decision makers around likely economic outcomes of investing in disease control measures. Evidence was synthesised from 2 separate statistical models and previous research, with the outcome for an individual cow or herd assessed in terms of changes in lifetime milk yield, and disposal risk. To extend the analyses of Archer et al. (2014), a single intervention was tested; storage of bedding material inside. Budgets for the intervention were determined for different decision makers based on their minimum expected return on investment, and risk aversion.