On the Temporal Stress Field of the Active Fault System by Boundary Element Method - A Case Study of Central Taiwan Area for 1935~1999

摘要

The displacement discontinuity method is particularly suitable to model crack and fault problems, as it possesses the property that the displacements at the two sides of the element are discontinuous, physically very similar to a crack or a fault. In this study, the displacement discontinuity was applied to simulate the transition of the fault system in central Taiwan from 1935 to 1999. And the results properly show the transition of regional stress field and the propagation of the faulting during the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. In order to assess and mitigate the risk of active fault induced earthquake in the future, it is essential to more reasonably link the stress analysis and risk analysis. A probabilistic algorithm was coupled with the displacement discontinuity method,and the coupled method was applied to the reliability-based risk analyses, with the consideration of uncertainties of mechanical and geometrical parameters.