A real-time failure model for transmission lines considering healthy index

摘要

Traditional failure model for transmission lines only concerns the degradation of equipment and the environment they are in. In order to consider the healthy index of transmission lines, which can be acquired in today's power PMS, this paper proposed a new real-time failure model for transmission lines based on PHM (Proportional Hazard Model). Its hazard function contains two parts: the baseline failure rate which represents the healthy index, and the state description function which reflects how the weather factors influence real-time failure rate. In this paper, we use the idea of pooling to classify discrete variables and least squares method to estimate the model's parameters. A practical case is tested to prove the ability of the proposed model to characterize the real-time failure rate.