The Assessment Of Mudflow Peak Discharge Through A Monte Carlo Simulation Method

摘要

The present study introduces a probabilistic approach able to estimate the mudflow peak discharge through the use of a Monte Carlo simulation method. In a classical deterministic approach, for a specific catchment, the parameters involved in estimation of the peak flow (topographical, hydrological parameters) are assumed to be known. As a result, in such approaches, the only source of uncertainty in evaluation of the peak discharge is due to rainfall intensity and frequency estimation, hi this work, the standard Monte Carlo simulation is used in order to propagate also the unceratinties in various parameters related to hydrographic basin modelling and to obtain a probability distribution for the peak-discharge flow for a given return period. As a test case, the peak discharge of a mudflow in the basin of the Mandrizzo River, located in the town of Cava dei Tirreni in Southern Italy, is evaluated.