Uncertainty Analysis of Coalbed Methane Economic Assessment with Montecarlo Method 1

摘要

Uncertainty analysis of coalbed methane (CBM) economic assessment is key to weakening the high potential risks of CBM exploration. In this paper, the uncertainty analysis method of CBM projects is created with montecarlo simulation. Firstly for discovering the risk origins of CBM economy, the main uncertainty factors are analyzed and the risk transformation process model of main uncertainty factors is built. Secondly, compling with above process model, CBM economic risk analysis algorithm steps are discussed detailed. Finally, by an example, the CBM economic risk of target area is cacluated. The results show that montecarlo method is an efficient for uncertainty analysis of CBM assessment.