Scenario analysis of China's future energy demand based on TIMES model system

摘要

The China TIMES model system, integrated with China energy service demand projection model (ESDPM) and TMES model (the integrated MARKAL-EFOM system), is built to study China's future sustainable energy and environment development strategy, based on energy demand projection with scenario analysis. On the basis of reasonable assumptions on the future economic growth and social development, the model system is employed to project China's energy demand from 2010 to 2050. The result shows that China's energy demand is expected to maintain a sustained and rapid growth before 2020, and then slow down gradually, reaching 6.6 and 6.2 billion tee in 2050 in reference scenario and policy scenario respectively.