Determinants of Carbon Emissions Growth in China: A Structural Decomposition Analysis

摘要

Based on 1992-2005 input-output tables at comparable price and using structural decomposition method (SDA), the paper decomposes carbon emissions growth from energy consumption in China into 4 categories of factors: carbon emissions intensity, technology, domestic final demand and trade. Carbon emissions have a trend of accelerated growth and the decisive factor is domestic final demand, not trade. Intensity of carbon emissions plays a significant restrain effect, entirely benefit from energy efficiency, rather than energy substitution. The effect of technical change leads to the growth of carbon emissions, reflecting the technology structure developed towards high energy consumption and emissions.