A system dynamics approach to technology interaction including cyclic behaviour

摘要

This paper is an extension of previous research on the simulation of three competing technologies that interact. Some exploration into cyclic behaviour of a modified version of the three technology system is attempted. Technology is considered in this research as a result of innovation, a rate dependent process that may include several non-linearities due to interaction with the environment. Technology growth patterns can be traced in a number of ways. Using bibliometrics as a research data source is one interesting way to trace these technology growth patterns very effectively. In this research the existence of cyclic behaviour in two real life technologies is illustrated using bibliometrics. In this paper a technology system consisting of three interacting technologies is treated and modeled in a coupled manner where the interacting dynamics is described by the Lotka-Volterra system of differential equations. The effect of interaction between the technologies and the period of cyclic behaviour is illustrated parametrically. Furthermore the possible uncertain diffusion effect in one of the technologies is also addressed in this research using a Monte Carlo multivariate simulation technique and a system dynamics approach. The research method is exploratory and case based. This method has been shown before to be useful especially early on in research projects.