On the Predictability of an Advection Fog Event in North China Plain:Sensitivity of the Simulation to Initial Errors

摘要

1.Introduction Fog is severe high-impact weather in North China Plain.Due to the complexity,diversity and the fine scale of processes (Zhou and Du 2010),the predictability of fog is very limited.Studies on practical fog predictability paid much attention to physical parametedzations (Bott et al.1990),and model resolutions (Muller 2006).For initial condition,a determinant element in fog simulation (Fitzjarrald and Lala 1989),there are several studies on sensitivity tests of initial conditions of radiation fog (Bergot and Guedalia 1994) and the influence of observations on initial conditions (Rémy and Bergot 2009).