RISK REDUCTION OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN THROUGH POOLING LOSSES IN CASE OF BANKRUPTCY OF SUPPLIERS USING THE BLACK-SCHOLES-MERTON PRICING MODEL

摘要

In recession times, slower demand, shrunk liquidity, and increasing pressure on cost can lead to bankruptcy of suppliers. The risks due to supplier bankruptcy include (a) losses due to supply chain disruption, (b) delayed or stopped finished goods shipments, (c) difficulty in finding cost-effective alternate suppliers and sourcing contracts, (d) emergency procurements, (e) loss of reputation and market share loss, etc. Bankruptcy models can be used to estimate the probability that a supplier may go bankruptcy, and a level of probability can be established that triggers the risks. This paper uses the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing model for estimating the probability of bankruptcy of supplier by extracting and examining the riskiness in stock market price of supplier. The paper uses the pooling arrangements among companies that source from multiple suppliers as a way to reduce the risk due to supplier bankruptcy.