Uncertainties Propagation within Offshore Flexible Pipes Risers Design

摘要

Flexible riser systems offer operators a robust method of producing oil and gas fields in harsh environments. Systems are currently designed using a mixture of local and international standards such that they can withstand conditions with a sufficient margin of safety. Flexible pipes have been installed for water depth exceeding 2500m. The application of reliability methods to determine the design of offshore systems such as jackets and ship hulls is well developed and has a long and successful track record. Flexible risers are subjected to the same random environmental loads. While probabilistic methods have been explored, they have yet to be applied in any meaningful manner to the fatigue limit state. How to account in the most robust manner for uncertainties within the loading has become critical for deriving cost effective and robust design rules for flexible risers. Especially the layer of the flexible riser bearing the tensile load, named tensile armours, is critical in the design in many of the deep-water developments. In this paper, multiple structures designed for west of Africa and the North Sea are investigated through a reliability method. Typical Uncertainties within the global riser motions, the local stress computations and in the stress-life curve resistance are accounted for. Demonstration is made that for the same uncertainties the variables influencing the reliability of the structure differ. Finally, the comparison with actual international design rules is made through the value of the safety factor applied on the design life.