A simulation method of dynamic systems applied to backcasting scenario design

摘要

Companies and governments use scenarios as a means to express their long-term development plans from diverse, business, social, environmental, and technological aspects with various resolutions. In designing such scenarios, simulation methods are crucial in verifying scenario conclusions derived from facts and activities. This paper proposes a simulation method used in the scenario design process, which can deal with a scenario model with various resolutions by combining simulation methods studied on system dynamics and agent-based modeling. The method quantifies the side effects of target conclusions in backcasting design of a scenario towards sustainable society based on the IPAT formalization.