Preliminary Study on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Scenarios of China before 2050

摘要

Large-scale development of nuclear power to China's current nuclear fuel cycle system pose challenges, the most prominent problem is the demand for uranium resources and nuclear waste disposal. According to China's current situation and long-term prospects for nuclear power, the preliminary development scenarios of the nuclear power in China by 2050 are predicted. The demand of natural uranium, the accumulated amount of spent fuel, plutonium and minor actinides are calculated according to three different growth scenarios assumed up to 2050. The amount of accumulated natural uranium demand will be 1044.9 kt, 1207.0 kt and 1356.3 kt by 2050. The amount of accumulated spent fuel (HM), Pu and minor actinides (MA) will be above 95495 t, 1107 t and 67 t, respectively. The research of advanced nuclear fuel cycle mode and the building of spent fuel reprocessing plant are effective for reducing the amount of accumulated spent fuel.