Urban building energy consumption forecast based on the IPAT theory

摘要

This paper established an urban building energy consumption model based on IPAT theory combined with ARMA method. Applying the model, the paper calculated the urban building energy consumption in different scenarios, and then predicted the amount of urban building energy consumption in China during 2011-2015. The amount of Chinese urban building energy consumption would grow rapidly during this period, and would reach about 895 million tons of standard coal in 2015. Results analysis showed that it would be necessary to promote energy- efficiency measures in urban buildings, especially in the public buildings.