Climate Change, Water and Agriculture in the Azov Sea Basin

摘要

The provinces of Russia and Ukraine located within the Azov sea basin are important producers of grains, sugar, sunflower, meat, and milk. Nineteen Russian provinces of the region together harvest almost half of all grain in Russia; agriculture contributes 28% to their total GDP. In Ukraine, four provinces collect 15% of grain harvested in the country. Because of heavy dependence of regional economics on agriculture, and major effects of regional agriculture on food security of the entire countries, climate change impacts on food production and water resources constitute major threats to the food security of both Russia and Ukraine. Historically, major droughts frequently affected the agriculture of the region, with resulting crop failures affecting the entire population of Russian Empire and USSR. The recent climate change seems beneficial for agriculture of the region: warmer temperatures extend growing season and elevate the accumulated heat. At the same time, further warming is not likely to be matched by higher precipitation, with negative impacts from the increasing aridity of climate. The most effective adaptation option, expansion of irrigation, is limited with high pressure on water resources, which is already high in many parts of the region.