A Study on Public Construction Project Duration Risk Identification and Evaluation

摘要

According to the intricate dynamic relationship of the duration management system, the paper identified risk factors for the object. Then established a comprehensive integrated Public Construction Project duration risk assessment model with the application of game theory-based weighting method. The model is validated effective and reasonable through simulation analysis. And it also provides a new way of thinking in the duration risk assessment. Public Construction Project is the infrastructure construction project which is closely related to people's lives and invested by the government. As the implementation of a large number of Public Construction Project, the effectiveness of project management method has been highlighted as the bottleneck of the project construction. In the process of management, the theory research especially the delay discipline is very limited. The existing theory research results have important guiding significance to the analysis of the article. However, the traditional identification method of schedule risk focused on the research of problems related to the project, and did not consider the whole project as a system. Due to the dynamics and complexity characteristics of schedule management, the traditional analysis method have some limitations in the risk identification. Inappropriate recognition method not only can't reflect the systematic characteristics of schedule management, it is also hard to keep the project from risk totally. From the perspective of system thinking. On the one hand, using the method of system dynamics to bring risk factors into the schedule management system. Take the feedback, control theory to analyze the interaction between factors to identify the main elements that influence the schedule management system; On the other hand, based on the identified main factors adopt the appropriate risk assessment method to sort the influence degree.