A Wind Farm Capacity Credibility Calculation Method Based on Parabola

摘要

The capacity credibility of a wind farm is the basic index to evaluate the value of its power generation capacity. As an important reference for the wind farm planning and site selection, calculation of wind farm capacity credibility is significant. Based on a sequential Monte Carlo simulation approach, this paper proposes a parabola calculation method for the wind farm capacity credibility. The method first uses an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series approach to simulate the hourly wind speeds, and then set up the reliability model of the wind energy conversion system (WECS). Finally, the parabolic method is used to calculate the effective load-carrying capacity (ELCC), which is the most important part of the capacity credibility of the wind farm. As a testing scenario, the IEEE-RTS79 test system is used to verify the method, and the difference of capacity credibility under different reliability indices is also analyzed.