Dynamics Analysis and Prediction on the Land Use of Typical Karst Wetland Watershed in Southeast Yunnan, China

摘要

In order to understand the situation of land use in Karst and the corresponding trend of variation in the future 30 years, based on the geographic information system (GIS), the dynamic variation of land use in Karst wetland has been analyzed by using the Landsat pictures in the year of 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015. The spatial distribution of land use in 2025, 2035 and in 2045 has been simulated and analyzed. Meanwhile, the change in wetland has been further evaluated by combining with the social and economic data of the local statistical yearbook (2005-2013). The results show that the area of agricultural land, construction land and garden area increased by 3.42%, 0.71% and 0.02% respectively, but the area of unused land, wetland and forest land decreased by 2.36%, 1.21% and 0.58% respectively. What's more, the sub-scenario predictions showed that the major land-use types still are the farmland, forest land and wetland in the study area in the future, and the transfer way land use types is different under the various scenarios. For example, in scenario I, wetlands and agricultural land are the main sources of land circulation and mainly became the land for township residents; In scenario II, the increase in construction land and unused land occupies part of the agricultural land and forest land; under scenario III, Convertion of farmland from construction land, woodland and wetlands are the main land-use patterns in the future. However, although the wetland area has increased, it is still necessary to strengthen and apply the land use environmental management strategy to achieve the best balance between the development of tourism and the ecological protection of environmental resources due to the activity from human activities.