PV System Power Forecasting Based on Neural Network with Fuzzy Processing of Weather Factors

摘要

A short-term PV system power forecasting method is presented in the paper based on neural network, considering fuzzy characteristics of weather factors. Weather factors that affect PV system power output mainly include temperature, radiation intensity, rain and relative humidity which. are all of strong fuzziness. The paper firstly made use of membership functions to process their fuzziness. Then, the historical power data of a PV system was put into neural network together with fuzzy processed historical weather data to train the network, therefore, neural network that be able to forecast PV power was get. Finally, data of an actual PV system in Colorado was employed to. methods with and without fuzzy processing of weather factors, results show that the method with fuzzy processing is more accurate than that without fuzzy processing.