Implementing hydropower scheduling in a European expansion planning model

摘要

A method for implementing an enhanced hydropower planning formulation in a long-term expansion planning model is proposed. The methodological framework involves assigning hydropower generation a marginal cost through water values, enabling comparability with the marginal costs of competitive technologies. Added robustness and details in the representation of hydropower and its inherent storage capabilities allows for a more precise evaluation of the technology's impact on optimal investments for other power resources. The impact for intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power is especially interesting to analyze. Examination of effects from the richer formulation is carried out for an EU 20-20-20 like policy scenario. Optimization results for Europe in the period 2010 to 2060 show that the new framework leads to decreased utilization of hydropower due to its more precise valuation through water values, as well as lower inflow for run-of-the-river hydropower than previously. Therefore, additional investments are carried out for other energy sources that are deemed more economically beneficial. Notably, an earlier deployment of solar power is part of the revamped investment scheme.