A score based method for assessing the performance of GCMs in the Yellow-Huai-Hai region

摘要

A multi-criteria score-based method has been developed to assess General Circulation Models (GCMs) skill in the Yellow-Huai-Hai region for 1970-2005. The rank score of these criteria are applying to comprehensively assess the temporal and spatial performance of precipitation and temperature of 18 GCMs in the study region. The results indicate that: GCMs usually simulate temperature better than rainfall. The temporal and spatial distribution of simulated temperature performed well when compared with the observed data. Compared with temperature, the spatial distribution of simulated precipitation performed poor. All the GCMs underestimate the temperature and overestimate the precipitation in the study region. The method developed in this study could easily be extended to different study regions and results can be used for better informed regional climate change impact analysis.