Incorporating ecological requirement into reservoir storage capacities design for adaptation to climate change

摘要

Reservoir problems contain inherent uncertainty. The random nature of reservoir inflow is one of most important characteristic of determining the storage capacity of eco-friendly reservoir. However, previous eco-friendly reservoir storage requirement are generally derived from observed or synthetic flows and have rarely been determined by future flows under climate change. Here an optimization model is used in the design of the capacity of reservoir under future climate change to identify optimal trade-offs between two objectives: the maximization of the reliability and the minimization of the hydrologic alteration. The latter is evaluated considering different ecological requirement policies. There are three steps in the proposed model: (1) weather generator module is used to generate feasible future climate conditions, (2) VMOD model is adopted as the hydrological simulation module to generate flows from those future weather conditions, and (3) reservoir optimization module is employed to determine the optimal reservoir storage capability with different climate change conditions under different ecological requirement policies. Based on the results of various optimizations, it becomes possible to identify the most advantageous design alternatives to realize the reservoir project. It was found that the use of different storage capacity can enhance sufficiently both the water supply reliability and reduce hydrologic alteration.