Probabilistic model of Wind Power Ramp Events Based On Moving Ratio Analysis

摘要

Description of probability distribution characteristics of wind power ramp events is always a challenge in grid-connected wind power operation analysis. In this paper, a moving ratio based approach of wind power ramp events is introduced and an probability model is described for the wind ramp events. The proposed model is useful to estimate the relationship between power ramp events and the variability of the wind power. The proposed model is able to satisfactorily approximate the actual distribution of wind power ramp events. It is shown that the linear difference based ramp distribution can be calculated using the proposed moving ratio based approach. The proposed model can be an effective tool in planning for wind power ramp control.