Reliability Assessment of Power Generation and Transmission System Considering Wind Farm Based on Monte-Carlo Methods

摘要

According to the weibull distribution of the wind speed, this research establishes the probability outrage model of the wind generator. Besides, this paper establishes a three-state Markov reliability model of the wind generator taking the drop running state into account. And the load model is built considering the randomness of the prediction error. This paper takes the improved IEEE RTS79 system for example, the reliability index of loss of load probability and loss of load expectation are calculated. Because the wind turbine derating state and load error are taken consideration, the proposed model is more accurate and the assessment results have high practical significance.