System Dynamics Simulation and Adjustment on Coal Resource Utilization Based on Circular Economy

摘要

Coal resource utilization system, based on circular economy, is an opening, complex and time-varying system. It composes of subsystems such as industry, population, economy and environment etc. Taking the industry subsystem as prime object, this paper builds its system dynamics model adopting the system dynamics method based on full life cycle. The adjustment parameters such as utilization rate of by-product of mining, the proportion of coal use in each industry and waste recycling rate etc. were confirmed. As a case of coal utilization system being designed, thirteen development projects belong to two types of scenarios were run on the model. The efficacy coefficient method was applied to analyze the simulation results and determine the comparatively best project of coal resource utilization system for the first time. The results indicate that the C4 among them are the best project comparatively, its waste emission is the least, and the benefits of economy, environment and society are the maximum. Research shows that extending industrial chain, increasing production proportion of high added-value product and raising waste recycling rate are beneficial to decrease coal-mining quantity for unit output value, protect coal resource and achieve sustainable development, namely that adopting circular economy development pattern is undoubtedly worthy of advocating for sustainable development of economy, environment and society.