Judge the possible areas in eastern part of Inner Mongolia where strong earthquakes occur in the future by utilizing b-value

摘要

The Zhalantun district of eastern part of Inner Mongolia is located at the northern section of Greater Khingan seismic belt, and it has complicated geological structure, with relatively dynamic moderately strong earthquake in past times and modern times. The seismic activities in this district is selected as the research object;;based on the integrity analysis toward seismic sequence in the district, least square method is used to conduct time scanning calculation of b-value, and maximum likelihood method is used to conduct space scanning calculation of b-value. The b-value during the time scanning is the mean b-value of research zone in every scanning window, so its amplitude of variation is not quite great, with range of variation of b-value basically staying within 0.78-1.13, and range of error staying within 0.04-0.065. The space scanning results indicate that the space distribution range of b-value of Zhalantun district basically stays within 0.4-1.6, and the range of error is 0.045-0.085. The low b-value zone is the north central section of Alun River breakage, with b-value basically distributed within 0.5-0.7, which indicates that the earth crust medium of this zone is under the state of high horizontal stress accumulation and it is the dangerous zone where moderately strong earthquake or more occurs in the future.