Application of Self-Adaptive Exponential Smoothing Method in the Water Quality Forecast of Poyang Lake

摘要

The smoothing parameter is a constant when forecasting water quality using exponential smoothing, which usually renders the error to be enlarged, but the assumption of constant is out of accord with the practice. Based on the deep analysis of deficiency of traditional exponential smoothing, this paper establishes self-adaptive exponential smoothing model and compares the forecast result. It is proved that the dynamic characteristic of water quality can be better reflected and the forecasting precision can be improved further by self-adaptive exponential smoothing model.