Technology Forecasting Methods with Emphasis on Bibliographic Analysis and Curve Fitting: A Photocatalytic Case Example

摘要

Technology forecasting methods can be applied to make sure we know the potential direction, characteristic, state and effect of technology change. A good forecast can maximize gain and minimize loss from future conditions Nowadays, many companies invest a great deal in R&D to develop competitive new products and technology. Globalization and the rate of technological change in highly competitive market mean that companies need to consider increasing the R&D budgets and ensuring the money is spent efficiently and effectively. Technology forecasting is very useful for decision making in managerial issues. It can help government manage their public agendas and budgetary constraints and for business strategic direction and prioritizing R&D projects. This paper explores the technology forecasting methods and demonstrates the use of bibliographic analysis and curve fitting with Bass diffusion and exponential models for trend forecasting of titanium dioxide photocatalyst as a case example.