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Comprehensive Energy Price Model Including Deepwater Drilling Risk

机译:综合能源价格模型,包括深水钻井风险

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Relying solely on traditional drilling technology to estimate the world's proven Oil Reserves denies the likelihood that billionsof barrels of unfound oil lay just outside the industry's technological reach. With substantial financial and legal assistance andgovernment support to develop newer technologies like Deep-Water Drilling (DWD), the major oil companies and the USWhite House are confident that new fields can be brought into production that should increase supplies and stabilize or lowerenergy prices. Each new find, they estimate, will help increase the world's proven oil reserves allowing investors andconsumers to feel more optimistic about providing for their future energy needs. It is also hoped that this new technology willlead to safer, more economic and environmentally appealing exploration and production methods (Belhaj, et al). Pertinent questions arise as to what impact BP's tragic oil spill may have on the future of Deep-Water Drilling and on thefuture of energy prices? Does industry have the technology to successfully and economically exploit fields using DWD? Whatrole should governments play in regulating dangerous, environmentally unsound drilling practices? Should regulations beallowed to impede progress? Identifying DWD as having a major influence on cost and being a critical parameter in any energy equation, the authorsanswer these questions and present two models that pessimistically and realistically describe the future role of DWD in placeslike China, India and Brazil over the next 50 years - places with growing populations and economies, but little governmentoversight. Conclusions are reached with a discussion about the need for DWD in the current economic slowdown in advanced economiesthat have witnessed decreased oil demand and why traditional models affecting energy prices have been unsuccessful inpredicting the current high energy prices.
机译:仅仅依靠传统的钻井技术来估计世界经过验证的石油储备否认危险桶的可能性在行业的技术覆盖范围之外的可能性。凭借大量的财务和法律援助和政府支持,为深水钻井(DWD)等较新技术,主要石油公司和USWHITE房屋相信新的田地可以进入生产,这些领域应该增加物资和稳定或降低价格。他们估计的每一个新的发现都将有助于增加世界经过验证的石油储备,允许投资者和广告人对提供未来的能源需求感到更加乐观。它还希望这项新技术威廉威廉威廉将更安全,更经济和环境吸引力的勘探和生产方法(Belhaj等)。关于BP的悲惨漏油可能对深水钻井的未来和能源价格的未来可能有什么相关性问题?行业是否有技术能够使用DWD成功和经济地利用领域? Whatrole应该在规范危险,环境不合适的钻井实践方面发挥作用吗?法规应该削弱进展吗?识别DWD对成本具有重大影响并成为任何能源方程中的关键参数,这是作者们这些问题,并提出了两个令人悲观地和现实地描述了DWD在未来50年中的地方,印度和巴西的未来作用的模型 - 具有越来越多的人口和经济的地方,但政府威斯威目的很少。结论讨论了关于DWD在现任经济上的经济放缓中的需求,先进的经济学证司目睹了石油需求下降,为什么影响能源价格的传统模型均未成功,目前的高能源价格不成熟。

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