The Study on Accident Probability Risk Assessment Methods for Shipwrecks in Inland Waterways

摘要

For disposal of the shipwrecks in the coastal and inland waterways timely and properly to ensure navigable vessels safely and smoothly, the process and mechanism of navigable vessels collision with shipwrecks was analyzed and shipwreck accident probabilistic risk assessment model was established based on event tree analysis. Assuming the traffic pattern in normal distribution, geometric probability of navigable vessels into collision route was determined according to the location of shipwreck. Reference deviation probability was employed to describe the failure probability of collision avoidance due to abnormal navigable vessels and was determined according to the historic accidents at domestic and abroad waterways, taking into account wind, current, visibility, passageways and traffic density for correction. The model was proved to be practical and operational for shipwreck treatment decision support in specific waterways.