Risk analysis on downstream of a reservoir when the flood control forecast operation method is used - An example of Shenwo reservoir

摘要

The present article aims to introduce the authors' research on the method of flood control forecast operation that a reservoir can actualize in a flood season. Though it is an effectual measure to resolve the discrepancy between the flood control and the water resource utilization, the risk for a reservoir to actualize the flood control forecast operation method decides whether it can be actualized as compared to the conventional operation method. So far, there is not an effective quantitative method to calculate the above risk. Having analyzed the risk factors of the flood control operation, a kind of numerical analysis method has been put forward to calculate such risks based on the distribution of the flood runoff of a reservoir and the forecast errors of the runoff. Thus, the risk to the downstream of a reservoir caused by the forecast errors can be calculated quantitatively and the present article has done such practical flood control forecasts. Taking Shenwo reservoir for example, the authors have introduced the ideas and calculation methods in a detailed way. The calculation results of Shenwo reservoir show that the risk is tolerable or acceptable with Shenwo reservoir in contrast to the conventional operation method.