The Research of Rainfall Error Correction Based on System Response Curve

摘要

The rainfall error affects the accuracy of flood forecasting directly, and the error correction is very important to improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting. The system response curve was introduced into the real-time flood forecast updating system, and the error feedback updating model tracing the source of information was established in this paper. In order to certificate the feasibility, rationality and effectiveness of the method multi-directionally, the system response curve method and the second order autoregressive error correction were used in updating the 13 flood events of the Wangjiaba sub-basin of Huaihe River Basin respectively. The results show that the system response curve (SRC) method has physical conception, reasonable structure and good effect. The method will not lose the forecasting period and without increasing the parameters. In this study, the average NS of system response curve method was larger than 0.920. So, this method can be widely used in rainfall error correction for real-time flood forecasting.