Predicting the potential distribution patterns of the rare plant Gymnocarpos przewalskii under present and future climate change

摘要

Knowledge about the geographic distribution of the rare and relic plant Gymnocarpos przewalskii is very important to inform conservation strategies. In this study, we attempt to simulate and predict the potential geographic distribution of the species under present and future climate change, using the model of maximum entropy (Maxent), a species distributional model. We created predicting models based on sixteen sampled localities and nineteen environmental layers. Our results indicated that the simulated present distributions agree well with the actual distribution ranges. Under the future climate scenario with Maximum and energy requirements, the G. przewalskii shift broadly northward and westward. Distribution patterns of the rare species changed greatly.