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Analysis and modeling of dynamic changes in the Russian economy macroeconomic indices (2002 - 2016)

机译:俄罗斯经济宏观经济指标动态变化的分析与建模(2002 - 2016)

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The paper explores the relationship between inflation and the nominal interest rate, GDP and total income of the population. Based on the mathematical modeling methods, dynamics of the determination coefficient of time series of these indicators was considered. The study is based on the data obtained from Russian open sources in 2002-2016. The main results are: 1) The type of function of the interrelation between the interest rate and inflation was revealed; 2) The behavior of the obtained function in time cycles was determined; 3) The periods and cycles of the interest rate influence as a tool of financial and monetary policy were determined. The proposed approach can be used for a more in-depth study of the interrelationships of macroeconomic indicators, as well as building more accurate models for their describing.
机译:本文探讨了通货膨胀与义率,GDP和人口总收入之间的关系。基于数学建模方法,考虑了这些指标的时间序列的确定系数的动态。该研究基于2002 - 2016年从俄罗斯开放来源获得的数据。主要结果是:1)揭示了利率与通货膨胀之间的相互关系的功能; 2)确定所得函数在时间循环中的行为; 3)确定利率影响作为金融和货币政策工具的期间和周期。该拟议方法可用于更深入地研究宏观经济指标的相互关系,以及为其描述的更准确的模型。

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