Influence of Grey System Parameter Identification Method on Prediction of Bearing Capacity of Piles

摘要

An unequal interval grey model GM (1,1) was established according to the variation characteristics of sequence data about the bearing capacity of overlength piles, and a difference equations was usually adopted to replace the grey differential equation for determining the system parameters of the model;;however, great errors would occur when the model thus established was used to predict the bearing capacity of overlength piles, that is, the prediction results would be overestimated or underestimated. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the model, we established an error objective function based on optimization theory in this study, employed the method of nonlinear least squares to identify the system parameters in the grey differential equation for the bearing capacity of overlength piles, and built an optimization-based grey optimization model. The model system built with optimization method was used to predict the bearing capacity of overlength piles, and the predicted values fit the test values well. In addition, the model system had a higher accuracy, compared with the grey difference model built with difference method;;therefore, the model system built with optimization method could provide reference for prediction of the bearing capacity of overlength piles.