System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of China's SO2 Emission Trading Policy

摘要

Based on the theory and method of system dynamics, we establish a China¡¯s SO2 emission trading policy model which includes SO2 pollution subsystem, policy implementation subsystem and policy effect of evaluation subsystem, and test the model from historical data and parameter sensitivity. And then, using Vensim software, annual SO2 emissions and policy effect of SO2 emission trading are simulated running from 2000to 2020. The testing results indicate that the model has high precision and accuracy, and simulation results show that the contribution of trading policy to controlling SO2 emission total amount will increase steadily form 2011, This conclusions will provide decision-making bases for designing and optimizing SO2 pollution control policies in China.