Research on GERT Network Model of the Evolution of Resource Crisis

摘要

The evolution of the resource crisis may fester and spread by the influence of derivative and secondary crisis. It may also develop towards alleviation and recovery because of effective crisis management and rescue. This paper describes the dynamic evolution process, and then establishes a kind of dynamic GERT network model which takes the natural evolution process of resource crisis and the corresponding crisis management and evolution path together. Then, applying GERT network analytic methods, this paper holds a dynamic estimation of the evolution path of the crisis, evolution probability of all the main status and time. After the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the influence of the outside behavior on system development, such as the deterioration and diffusion of the crisis, derivative and secondary crisis, crisis management and rescue, this paper gives the quantitative conclusion. This paper offers the analytical framework and tool that can be applied into the qualitative and quantitative study of the evolution process of the crisis, reveals the mechanism of the evolution of the crisis. It also provides a new research method and thinking for prediction, warning and evaluation of the development trend of the crisis.