Predicting price trends in Henan Province during the period of the twelfth five-year plan based on grey fuzzy theory

摘要

Commodity price is always a matter related to national welfare and people's livelihood. In 2010, the country's central government put ‘Price Control’ as an important matter among national priorities and did enormous efforts for it. As a center area of Central Plain Economic Zone, He Nan Province has more reasons to keep commodity price in check. Based itself on the grey fuzzy theory the paper tries to form a model to forecast the Variational Trend of consumer price index of He Nan Province during the period of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. According to the model, the consumer price index would either rise or decline for some while from 2011 to 2015, presenting the overall steady and ascendant. Besides, the paper also suggested several factors that would probably affect consumer price index and concluded the rising price of food products and residence products, two main components of consumer price index, is the most important reason affecting consumer price index. Moreover, the carryover effect and the central government's macro control also contribute to the overall steady growth of CPI of He Nan Province.