Seismic risk assessment: A software procedure for the simulation of damage scenarios in emergency management

摘要

The paper describes the methodology to produce event scenarios based on both historical analysis and knowledge of the physical characteristics of the involved phenomena. A Damage Scenario is obtained by overlapping an event scenario with risk-exposed territorial elements. Reliability of the damage estimation given by scenarios is strictly related to an accurate modelling of all the different systems in an area. Based on the seismic vulnerability data on the whole provincial territory, a software procedure has been realized, which makes possible to obtain a first estimate of victims and damage of goods, only a few minutes after a seismic event. The procedure has been implemented in the Provincial GIS of Risk Exposed Elements, as an effective and simple instrument to manage the first moments of a seismic emergency.As a case study, a simulation of the 1857 Basilicata Earthquake (M = 6.8) was performed to know the effects it would cause if should it happen today.