Improving Air Force Flight Test Center Developmental Test and Evaluation Through Increased Use of Statistical Methods February 2010

摘要

The Air Force Flight Test Center (AFFTC) is continually evolving our test methodologies to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of our developmental test and evaluation (DT&E). We provide the weapon system acquisition program manager with increased knowledge of the developing weapon system to support our combined goal of providing the war fighter with fully developed and understood war winning capabilities, on time, on cost. For several years we have been advancing our use of statistically based methods, specifically design of experiments (DOE) for structuring a test approach and more wide-spread and in-depth use of statistical methods for our analysis, evaluation, and reporting. Design of experiments and statistically based analysis methods offer the T&E community additional methods to improve test effectiveness and provide objective assessments of the confidence and power in a specific test. Confidence and power are the statistical terms that quantify risk in a test. These parameters give the acquisition program manager valuable insight into the weapon system's state of development and risk in fielding, or passing along to operational test and evaluation (OT&E), the weapon system. This paper provides a status of the AFFTC efforts in improving the credibility, and thus defensibility, of our test planning, analysis, evaluation, and reporting through the use of DOE and statistical analysis methods. It describes our workforce training approach, how we are equipping the workforce with necessary support tools, and how we are organizing the AFFTC to ensure continued advancement toward widespread acceptance and use of these techniques.