Are there several kinds of strategic anticipations by firms?

摘要

Our answer to the question is yes. We distinguish four kinds of strategic anticipations by firms: 1.Anticipation in an ordinary sense. It consists in collecting and handling signs to understand the firm's environment. Paradoxically, this is more interesting when there are a few competitors (and each firm is poised to spend more money to anticipate the evolution of its environment). 2.Anticipation in an uncertain context. The context is described by a probabilistic law which is known. It can be modelized. It concerns agriculture, culture, financial portfolios and other cases. An interesting question is insurance, one demonstrates that it is useful, in this situation and that there is an optimal amount of insurance. 3.Anticipation in an imprecise context. The context is described by a probabilistic law the parameters of which are unknown. It can be modelized. It can be applied to the choice of financial portfolios. Also, insurance is useful and there is an optimal amount of insurance.