Study on the Traffic Volume Prediction of Highway Tourist Traffic

摘要

Scientific and accurate forecast of highway tourist traffic volume is the premise of regional tourism transportation development planning. Based on a detailed analysis of the characteristics and influencing factors of highway tourism transportation, Elastic Coefficients Method and Factor Analysis Model were innovatively combined and proposed to quantitatively forecast regional road tourist traffic volume. After that, South road of Lushun, Dalian was introduced to testify the proposed algorithm. The results implicate a good adaptability of this model in the prediction of highway tourist traffic volume. Also, the results provide basis for regional highway planning and construction, transport infrastructure construction, rational distribution of transportation capacity and the development planning of tourism industry, on the premises of not wasting road resources without increasing the road load to achieve the sustainable development of tourism transportation.