Biological methods of ecological diagnostics for making representative predictions related to assessment of stability in ecosystem processes and environmental quality for a human being

摘要

Any complex system including human civilization develops, as a rule, ambiguously and irregularly. In the course of evolution, there can be periods of relatively stable processes (homeostatic states) as well as periods of transitional, fluctuated and other unstable processes. Sustainable development of mankind being declared nowadays has been always connected mostly with sustainable technical progress and sustainable growth of welfare of every member of human society. It should be noticed that for some objective reasons nowadays the notion "sustainable development" is also understood as "harmonization" of relationships between human society and other Nature. Even without taking into account philosophic, ethic and fundamental natural science aspects, it is evident that for realization of" sustainable development" we need representative forecast of possible changes as a result of any human disturbances of Nature that must be in harmony with mankind. Reliability of such forecasts are connected with assessment of environmental quality and ecological diagnostics that means to reveal the degree of deviation, if there is any, from norm in the state of both the whole ecosystem and its structural units. Representative assessment of environmental quality and proper diagnosis enable to develop ecological norms that is necessary for ecosystem process to develop in the right directions.