Application of EFFORTS in Real - time Flood Forecastingto Xiao—Hua Reach

摘要

European flood forecasting operational real time system is composed of the rainfall runoff model TOPKAPI, mutually interactive state parameter estimation ( MISP) and unsteady 1 — D flow hydraulic model ( PAB ). TOPKAPI is a physically based rainfall — runoff model applicable at different spatial scale, ranging from the hill slope one to the catchment one, and in the perspective to the GCMs one, maintaining at increasing scales physically meaningful values for the model parameters. And the PAB model is based on the sequential application of surge profiles ( calculation of levels from downstream to upstream in slow current ) and flow propagation by means of parabolic type impulse response ( transfer of flow from upstream to downstream). In addition, the statistical model MISP is used for flood forecast correction in this system. It evaluated with a deterministic model in any cross section of interest, on the basis of the last measured discharge values recorded in the corresponding cross section. In this paper, the study system is applied to Xiao — Hua reach, and results show that the real time forecast system is suitable to the study basin.